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Tuesday, September 11, 2012

An Inspiring Story - Trading Should be as Simple as It Is

Dr Joe arrived at the pit before opening time and saw all the floor traders congregated together in a meeting. He saw this as strange as he thought they were out and out competitors with each other.

What he saw in the first 15 to 30 minutes he would never have believed even if his best friend had told him. At the open, the overnight trades, which were long positions, were put through but he detected the traders entering them were giving signals to the other traders. After the orders were put through there was “nothing” – they just waited to see how the market reacted to those orders.

He then observed what he thought were illegal practices but later learned it to be what actually goes on each and every day. During this “dead” time, the floor traders were reviewing their orders in the pipeline and then on a given signal, a group started selling followed by another group. Then when a certain lower price had been reached, another signal was given and the same groups then bought back amongst themselves. He later learned this was called “Running the Stops” and what they had done was found out where all the orders were, which were below lows, swing lows and elsewhere, and just driven the price down to fill them and take them out so that they had a clean order sheet! Not satisfied with that, they then collectively took the price back to where it opened!

After this and now with the market moving, orders started to come in and when a large order came in from a bank, fund or other large institution, the trader with the order gave a signal before entering it. After entering it, the traders went quiet again. They were looking to see how the market reacted to that order. When they saw more buy orders coming in, they just bought more and more and kept on buying until a signal from a trader that he had a large sell order. Again the sell order was entered and the traders went quiet as they waited for a reaction from the market. He learned that the floor traders were waiting to see whether the sell order was going to be accepted as profit taking or full blown shorting. He said this went on all day long with the floor traders just “piggy-backing” on which ever way the market moved. He said he could see no skills or qualifications (other than being a whore – a very rich whore, he said) whatsoever in what the floor traders did.

On his way back to Houston, he thought about how to use what he witnessed to HIS advantage.

His first action was to throw out all his indicators, forecasts and technical analysis. He told me that there is no analysis, indicator or other program now or in the future, that can analyse or predict human behaviour and specifically, human emotions. He had seen for himself that there was nothing technical or logical in how the floor traders (now better known as Market Movers) traded and therefore any analysis or thinking from “off the floor” was an absolute waste of time.

His second action was how to beat “those whores” on the floor as he called them. He said he thought over just about every scenario imaginable and just as he was running out of ideas, it came to him. If you can’t beat, them join them although as a very devout and God fearing Christian, he didn’t think it was ethical. Unable to find another alternative, he decided he had no options left but to try and do, “off the floor” what they did on the floor.

From this came his very simple method:

Buy when it goes up and sell when it goes down.

He went on to make $millions doing this and I subsequently learned he passed away a very rich and contented man knowing that he had beaten the “whores” at their own game.

I learned all this in a few telephone conversations with him but he lost his patience with me when I still questioned his method. He wouldn’t answer my calls so I reverted back to faxes. Again, I can’t remember it word for word but I sent a simple fax saying:

“How do you know when to stop buying?”

On the same fax was his handwritten reply, “When it stops going up.”

So I wrote on it, “How do you know when it stops going up?”

His handwritten reply, “When it starts going down.”

So I wrote on it, “How do you know when it stops going up and starts going down?”

His handwritten reply, “When people start selling.”

After going round like this in riddles, I pleaded with him to “just give it to me straight”.

He sent a fax saying this would be his last communication with me and that if I didn’t understand how to buy when it goes up and sell when it goes down, I had no business trading.

His final paragraph was one which I ignored, like everything else he told me, until a couple of years ago when I realized what a dumb, stupid, arrogant, stubborn idiot I had been:

He said I would only be wrong twice using his simple method:

“Once when you buy at the top and once when you sell at the bottom.”

I just ignored this as a smart – ass answer but still tried to do what he said. Unfortunately, and as Sod’s law dictates, I tried to do it in a consolidation and lost on every trade which had me buying when I should have been selling etc.

I tried and lost again and then eventually lost my way in the quest for the Holy Grail in Indicator Land.

Now, with all my experience and thousands of lost $ behind me, the light came on!

My understanding of what he was telling me is this:

Buy when prices are moving up. Buy each retrace/dip. Keep buying until the last retrace becomes a trend change which is the one trade you lose on.

Sell when prices are moving down. Sell each retrace/rally. Keep selling until the last retrace becomes a trend change which is the second trade you lose on.

I have not traded like this as I have my own method/style now but on the look backs I have done it works very well. Obviously, the trendier the price, the better it works.

In my later communications with other floor traders, I told them about Dr. Joe and what he told me, and asked them if it was true. As you would expect, each and everyone vehemently rejected it as absolute rubbish.

Sometimes I wonder if old Dr. Joe was smoking something but then when I see those long legged neutral dojis before a significant move, I know he was right.

* Artikel di atas saya copy dari salah satu Forum

Sunday, September 9, 2012

Be Different - Trading Personality

Di dunia bisnis ada 3 hal yang bisa kita lakukan untuk sukses dalam bersaing diantara sekian banyak bisnis yang sudah ada..

1. Be the first
Kita harus mampu menjadi yang pertama dalam menciptakan suatu bisnis yang belum pernah ada sebelumnya, dengan demikian kita berpeluang untuk menjadi trend setter yang sekaligus akan membuka jalan untuk bisnis atau produk kita menjadi yang paling unggul
Contoh: Air mineral AQUA, Teh Botol Sosro

2. Be Better
Jika kita tidak bisa menjadi pelopor, maka kita harus mampu menjadi lebih baik dari semua produk atau bisnis sejenis yang sudah ada dipasaran.
Contoh: Friendster adalah yang pertama, tapi Facebook tampil lebih baik

3. Be Different
Jika tidak bisa menjadi yang pertama dan tidak bisa tampil lebih baik dalam persaingan bisnis, maka kita dituntut untuk mampu berinovasi untuk bisa 'tampil beda'. Tampil beda dalam hal ini bisa beda dalam hal produknya, kemasannya ataupun marketing strategy-nya.
Contoh: Produk Apple (iMac, iPod, iPad, iPhone)

Dalam hal ini saya tidak memfokuskan pada produk yang terbaik, tapi lebih kepada keberhasilan dalam berbisnis itu sendiri. Karena yang 'terbaik' itu relatif.

Sebagai contoh yang dapat kita lihat dalam kehidupan kita sehari-hari adalah begitu banyaknya tayangan iklan yang memproklamirkan produknya adalah yang pertama...... atau lebih baik...... atau berbeda dengan produk pesaingnya.

Begitu juga didunia trading. Suka atau tidak suka...... trading adalah bisnis, karena dengan memperlakukan trading seperti kita menjalankan bisnis-lah kita akan berhasil. Perlu diingat, bahwa definisi berhasil didunia bisnis tidak melulu tentang besar-kecilnya suatu usaha atau perusahaan, tapi lebih kepada berapa lama bisnis tersebut mampu bertahan, bagaimana usaha tersebut tidak hanya hidup tapi juga mampu menghidupi dan bagaimana bisnis tersebut berdampak kepada masyarakat sekitar ataupun masyarakat luas.

Sebuah kenyataan bahwa banyak perusahaan besar gulung tikar, tapi dilain sisi banyak usaha atau bisnis kecil yang dari 'fisik'nya terlihat seperti "hidup enggan - matipun tak mau", justru mampu bertahan puluhan tahun..! Dari sisi itulah saya menilai berhasil atau tidaknya suatu usaha atau bisnis.

Tapi bukan berarti saya menolak untuk 'menjadi besar'. Semua bergantung kepada kemampuan, yang penting mampu bertahan, mampu bertahan dan terus semakin besar usahanya?! Aamiin..!

Kembali ke 3 point di atas, bagaimana kita menerapkannya didunia trading?

Untuk menjadi yang pertama, jelas gak mungkin.... sudah ada jutaan orang melakukan trading jauh sebelum kita mengenalnya.... sementara untuk menjadi lebih baikpun bukan hal mudah, karena kita berhadapan dengan jutaan orang di hampir seluruh belahan dunia dengan sistem yang sudah teruji dan terbukti...

Lalu bagaimana dengan 'be different'?!
Itulah pilihan terakhir yang bisa kita terapkan untuk berhasil didunia trading.

Jika kita selalu 'mengekor' dengan sistem atau strategi yang sudah ada, bagaimana kita akan tampil beda?!

Setiap manusia adalah unik, mempunyai kesamaan sekaligus perbedaan. Karena by nature atau secara alamiah, kita sudah mempunyai perbedaan... maka seharusnya kita sudah mempunyai modal atau bekal untuk berhasil didunia trading... dengan cara "do it yourway"!

 Di dalam salah satu bukunya, Jared Martinez mengatakan:

- "People trade according to their personalities"

- "If you think your character will not have an effect on your trading outcome, you are grossly mistaken"

- "We bring our characters, our personal traits and habits to the trading table"

Dengan kata lain kenali diri kita sendiri terlebih dahulu sebelum kita (mencoba) mengenal market. Coba tanyakan hal-hal di bawah ini kepada diri kita sendiri.

- apa kelebihan kita? dan apa yang menjadi kekurangan kita?
- bagaimana sifat atau karakter kita?
- apakah kita pemarah? penakut? orang yang mudah panik?
- apa hal-hal yang kita sukai dan apa yang tidak kita sukai?
- bagaimana kita menyikapi permasalahan dalam hidup?
- apakah kita orang yang optimistis atau pesimistis?
- bagaimana cara hidup kita?
- bagaimana gaya hidup kita?

dan masih banyak lagi hal-hal yang bisa kita tanyakan pada diri kita sendiri.

Setelah kita "menemukan dan mengenal" diri kita sendiri, dari situlah kita mulai membangun sebuah  trading system. Misalnya Time Frame berapa yang sesuai untuk kita gunakan sesuai aktifitas kita sehari-hari? Pair atau produk apa yang sesuai dengan sifat/watak/karakter kita? Tipe trader apakah kita? Seberapa lamakah kita sanggup menahan posisi? Seberapa sabarkah kita untuk menunggu? Dll.

Dengan adanya 'trading personality' ini, kita akan mampu membangun sebuah trading system yang memang kita create untuk diri kita sendiri sesuai dengan sifat/watak/karakter kita... yang artinya kita 'bebas' dalam artian tidak ada belenggu atau hal-hal yang memberatkan kita dalam melakukan trading, karena semua aturan sudah disesuaikan dengan kepribadian kita.... tidak ada lagi ketidak cocokkan, semuanya sudah dibuat berdasarkan apa yang kita suka... dan jelas... system kita tidak akan sama 100% dengan system orang lain (walaupun kadang merupakan adaptasi dari system lain)... yang artinya apa?

Artinya kita tidak perlu bersusah payah menjadi orang lain dengan cara meniru dan menjalankan system mereka.... karena mereka adalah mereka dengan segala kelebihan dan kekurangannya, sementara kita adalah kita dengan segala kemampuan dan ketidakmampuan kita...

Saya pribadi percaya bahwa belajar dari kegagalan diri sendiri jauh lebih baik daripada belajar dari keberhasilan orang lain.

Winners don't do different things, they do things differently (Shiv Khera)

Why do we have to step on someone's paths if we can create ones?

Friday, September 7, 2012

Bosan nunggu di depan monitor?

 * Click image to enlarge

Ya... emang nunggu itu pekerjaan yang membosankan, apalagi nunggu atau mantengin monitor hanya karena pingin tahu kapan harga mencapai level tertentu, pingin tahu Pending Order udah kesentuh atau belum... atau udah TP atau belum....

Mungkin link ini bisa membantu.

Hidup itu terlalu indah untuk dihabiskan hanya di depan monitor....

Monday, September 3, 2012

Berapa pips bisa Anda peroleh setiap bulan?

Menurut Jared Martinez, jika anda bisa mendapatkan profit 200 pips tiap bulan, maka anda bisa hidup dari trading. Tapi jika anda bisa mendapatkan lebih dari 400 pips tiap bulan, maka anda sudah berada pada level 'financial freedom'.

Permasalahannya semua bergantung kepada berapa besar modal anda :)

What's the moral message behind this?

I do not expect any answer or comment to that question, apapun persepsi kita masing-masing, jadikan sebagai bahan renungan untuk mencapai hasil terbaik.

Monday, August 27, 2012

Simple Trade, Simply Profit

* Click image to enlarge

Mencoba sistem/strategi dengan modal $10. Setelah hampir 1 bulan, profit lebih dari 40%. Lebih dari cukup dibanding deposito di Bank :D