Dr Joe arrived at the pit before opening time and saw all
the floor traders congregated together in a meeting. He saw this as strange as
he thought they were out and out competitors with each other.
What he saw in the first 15 to 30 minutes he would never have believed even if
his best friend had told him. At the open, the overnight trades, which were
long positions, were put through but he detected the traders entering them were
giving signals to the other traders. After the orders were put through there was
“nothing” – they just waited to see how the market reacted to those orders.
He then observed what he thought were illegal practices but later learned it to
be what actually goes on each and every day. During this “dead” time, the floor
traders were reviewing their orders in the pipeline and then on a given signal,
a group started selling followed by another group. Then when a certain lower
price had been reached, another signal was given and the same groups then
bought back amongst themselves. He later learned this was called “Running the
Stops” and what they had done was found out where all the orders were, which
were below lows, swing lows and elsewhere, and just driven the price down to
fill them and take them out so that they had a clean order sheet! Not satisfied
with that, they then collectively took the price back to where it opened!
After this and now with the market moving, orders started to come in and when a
large order came in from a bank, fund or other large institution, the trader
with the order gave a signal before entering it. After entering it, the traders
went quiet again. They were looking to see how the market reacted to that
order. When they saw more buy orders coming in, they just bought more and more
and kept on buying until a signal from a trader that he had a large sell order.
Again the sell order was entered and the traders went quiet as they waited for
a reaction from the market. He learned that the floor traders were waiting to
see whether the sell order was going to be accepted as profit taking or full
blown shorting. He said this went on all day long with the floor traders just
“piggy-backing” on which ever way the market moved. He said he could see no
skills or qualifications (other than being a whore – a very rich whore, he said)
whatsoever in what the floor traders did.
On his way back to Houston,
he thought about how to use what he witnessed to HIS advantage.
His first action was to throw out all his indicators, forecasts and technical
analysis. He told me that there is no analysis, indicator or other program now
or in the future, that can analyse or predict human behaviour and specifically,
human emotions. He had seen for himself that there was nothing technical or
logical in how the floor traders (now better known as Market Movers) traded and
therefore any analysis or thinking from “off the floor” was an absolute waste
of time.
His second action was how to beat “those whores” on the floor as he called
them. He said he thought over just about every scenario imaginable and just as
he was running out of ideas, it came to him. If you can’t beat, them join them
although as a very devout and God fearing Christian, he didn’t think it was
ethical. Unable to find another alternative, he decided he had no options left
but to try and do, “off the floor” what they did on the floor.
From this came his very simple method:
Buy when it goes up and sell when it goes down.
He went on to make $millions doing this and I subsequently learned he passed
away a very rich and contented man knowing that he had beaten the “whores” at
their own game.
I learned all this in a few telephone conversations with him but he lost his
patience with me when I still questioned his method. He wouldn’t answer my
calls so I reverted back to faxes. Again, I can’t remember it word for word but
I sent a simple fax saying:
“How do you know when to stop buying?”
On the same fax was his handwritten reply, “When it stops going up.”
So I wrote on it, “How do you know when it stops going up?”
His handwritten reply, “When it starts going down.”
So I wrote on it, “How do you know when it stops going up and starts going
down?”
His handwritten reply, “When people start selling.”
After going round like this in riddles, I pleaded with him to “just give it to
me straight”.
He sent a fax saying this would be his last communication with me and that if I
didn’t understand how to buy when it goes up and sell when it goes down, I had
no business trading.
His final paragraph was one which I ignored, like everything else he told me,
until a couple of years ago when I realized what a dumb, stupid, arrogant,
stubborn idiot I had been:
He said I would only be wrong twice using his simple method:
“Once when you buy at the top and once when you sell at the bottom.”
I just ignored this as a smart – ass answer but still tried to do what he said.
Unfortunately, and as Sod’s law dictates, I tried to do it in a consolidation
and lost on every trade which had me buying when I should have been selling
etc.
I tried and lost again and then eventually lost my way in the quest for the
Holy Grail in Indicator
Land.
Now, with all my experience and thousands of lost $ behind me, the light came
on!
My understanding of what he was telling me is this:
Buy when prices are moving up. Buy each retrace/dip. Keep buying until the last
retrace becomes a trend change which is the one trade you lose on.
Sell when prices are moving down. Sell each retrace/rally. Keep selling until
the last retrace becomes a trend change which is the second trade you lose on.
I have not traded like this as I have my own method/style now but on the look
backs I have done it works very well. Obviously, the trendier the price, the
better it works.
In my later communications with other floor traders, I told them about Dr. Joe
and what he told me, and asked them if it was true. As you would expect, each
and everyone vehemently rejected it as absolute rubbish.
Sometimes I wonder if old Dr. Joe was smoking something but then when I see
those long legged neutral dojis before a significant move, I know he was right.
* Artikel di atas saya copy dari salah satu Forum
